Key Points
- BP shares rose about 2% to around 424 pence in London trading on Friday, January 9, 2026, tracking firmer oil prices amid Iran disruption concerns.
- Oil prices held steady with Brent up 0.3% at $62.17 a barrel and WTI at $57.93, driven by unrest in Iran despite potential Venezuelan supply increases.
- BP disclosed repurchasing 3.2 million shares on January 8 at 415.7 pence average and 3,174,587 shares on January 7 at 417.6 pence under its ongoing buyback programme.
- Energy stocks strengthened across Europe, with traders eyeing the U.S. jobs report and Washington’s Venezuela oil talks as key catalysts.
- Norway’s sovereign wealth fund reduced its BP stake from 3.99% to 2.99%, contributing to a 3.16% share drop earlier in the week.
- BP peer Shell weighed on the sector Thursday after trimming Q4 LNG production and flagging chemicals losses; BP dipped 0.6% on oversupply worries.
- Analysts like Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank highlighted Iran unrest lifting disruption fears, while Tina Teng of Moomoo ANZ noted focus on Venezuelan oil sales.
- BP’s next earnings expected February 10; buybacks remain key support amid volatile oil.
BP shares surged approximately 2% in London on Friday amid heightened Iran tensions boosting oil prices, with the company’s ongoing share buyback programme drawing investor attention despite recent sector pressures.
What Sparked BP’s Share Price Rise?
BP PLC shares climbed 1.9% to about 424 pence during London trading on January 9, 2026, opening at 421.65 pence and peaking at 425.29 pence, according to data from Hargreaves Lansdown. As reported by TS2 Space of ts2.tech, the bounce followed bruising sessions for UK oil names as traders assessed Venezuelan supply risks against tested demand, with BP serving as a quick indicator due to its direct link to oil and gas cash flows.
Energy stocks led gains across Europe that day, with investors bracing for the U.S. jobs report, which could influence rates, growth expectations, the dollar, and crude simultaneously. Reuters noted that Brent crude futures rose 0.3% to $62.17 a barrel by 1005 GMT, while U.S. WTI gained 0.3% to $57.93.
Why Are Iran Risks Driving Oil Firm Stocks?
Ole Hansen, head of commodity analysis at Saxo Bank, stated that unrest in Iran was elevating worries about potential disruptions, as quoted by Reuters in the TS2 Space report. Tina Teng, market strategist at Moomoo ANZ, said the market focused on how Venezuelan oil in storage would be sold and delivered. These geopolitical tensions provided a risk premium, countering concerns over rising global inventories and prospective Venezuelan barrels, which Reuters flagged as potential caps on gains.
The report highlighted that any sign of loosening supply could drag crude lower, impacting cash-return strategies like BP’s. Earlier coverage from Investing.com on FTSE 100 movements post-U.S. actions against Iran noted oil heavyweights like BP and Shell holding positive, with BP up 0.6% as prices retreated slightly.
How Does BP’s Buyback Programme Support Shares?
BP announced it bought 3.2 million ordinary shares on January 8 under its buyback programme, paying a volume-weighted average of about 415.7 pence per share across venues, planning to transfer them into treasury, per Investegate filings cited by TS2 Space. A separate filing showed 3,174,587 shares repurchased on January 7 at 417.6 pence average.
The buyback, repurchasing shares to reduce outstanding count, has been crucial support for BP amid oil volatility. TradingView news reported BP continuing its $750m quarterly buyback, funded by asset sales, even as other European oil firms slowed theirs, though shares dropped 3.1% amid oil deals.
What Recent Challenges Hit BP and Peers?
Norway’s sovereign wealth fund cut its BP stake to 2.99% from 3.99%, as Reuters reported, coinciding with a 3.16% share fall that day. BP’s peer Shell dragged the sector on Thursday after trimming its fourth-quarter LNG production range and signalling chemicals business losses, while BP fell 0.6% on energy oversupply concerns, per Reuters.
City A.M. detailed BP’s H1 2025 results, with revenue down 2.7% to $95.6bn and profit before tax at $6bn from $5.9bn, hit by weak oil and trading; shares still rallied nearly 2% to 413.84p. Murray Auchincloss, BP chief, pledged a fresh cost-saving review, targeting more reductions amid activist pressure from Elliott Management for $5bn extra by 2027.
Who Is Commenting on BP’s Financial Discipline?
Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, welcomed BP’s financial discipline with falling net debt and rising cost savings, but noted caution on payouts with production falls, maintaining $750m quarterly buyback and 4% dividend hike to 8.32 cents. Lale Akoner, global market analyst at eToro, praised BP’s largest oil discovery in 25 years off Brazil as adding long-term value, supporting CEO Murray Auchincloss’s focus on traditional energy.
Auchincloss told the Financial Times the firm would launch a cost strategy review, stating “can and will do better,” with incoming chair Albert Manifold assisting to maximise shareholder value; BP plans Nvidia collaboration to reduce cycle times.
What Broader Geopolitical Factors Influence Oil Prices?
Yahoo Finance UK earlier noted BP shares underperforming Shell long-term, up 70% from end-2020 to December 31, 2025 versus Shell’s 111%. Reuters in April 2025 warned BP’s buyback at risk from oil slumps, with analysts like UBS’s Joshua Stone forecasting cuts to $500m quarterly post-Q1, and RBC predicting halts at $60/bbl due to leverage.
Goldman Sachs, per Investing.com, estimated a $12 geopolitical risk premium from Iran risks, with Brent potentially peaking at $90 on Iran supply cuts or $110 on Strait of Hormuz disruptions, though incentives exist to avoid escalation. IG International reported UK energy stocks surging on Israel-Iran tensions, BP and Shell up 2%.
When Is the Next Catalyst for BP Investors?
Traders watch the U.S. jobs report on January 9 and Washington’s talks with oil firms on Venezuelan exports as near-term crude drivers. Zacks projected BP’s next earnings on February 10. BP started five major projects and 10 exploration discoveries in H1 2025, with 4,700 job cuts and 3,000 contractor reductions announced.
Taxation squeezed profits at $3.1bn, with Q1 rates up to 50% from 36% due to high-tax regions. Divisions saw hits: gas/low carbon down 20% to $2.5bn, oil operations 16% to $5.2bn, customers/products 8% to $2.2bn. Operating expenses dipped with $938m structural reductions in H1 2025, after $750m in 2024.
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